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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 28th, 2017–Jan 29th, 2017
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Rockies.

Strong winds will continue building fresh wind slabs while an alpine freezing level may promote instability at higher elevations on Sunday

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Sunday: A mix of sun and cloud. Winds strong from the southwest. Freezing level to 1300 metres with alpine temperatures to -3. Possible temperature inversion bringing alpine temperatures to above freezing.Monday: Mainly cloudy. Winds moderate to strong from the west. Freezing level to valley bottom with alpine temperatures of -8Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated flurries and a possible 5cm of new snow. Winds light from the northeast. Alpine temperatures of -13.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported. The main concern continues to be the possibility of triggering the weak faceted layers deeper in the snowpack. Ongoing winds have also been observed creating thin fresh slabs reactive to human triggering at upper elevations.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 10 cm of low density snow has been undergoing wind redistribution over the past couple of days, joining previous hard, wind-affected surfaces and forming thin layers of wind slab in lee terrain at higher elevations. Below 1500 metres you may find an isolated thin breakable rain crust about 1 cm thick. In the Elk Valley north area near Crown Mountain on Tuesday the height of snow was 90 cm with foot penetration of 80 cm; or almost to ground. Some solar exposed terrain in the alpine may have a thin sun-crust about 3 cm thick, and this may have a few cm of light dry snow above . The snowpack is quite variable throughout the region. In deeper snowpack areas, the snowpack appears to be well settled with isolated concerns about the mid-December facet layer buried 50-100 cm deep. In shallow snowpack areas and lower elevations, the snowpack is weak and faceted. In these areas, winds have formed isolated hard slabs above weak facets and created the potential for large persistent slab avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Triggering deeper weak layers remains possible where hard slabs sit above weak sugary snow.
Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.Danger exists where denser snow overlies weak, sugary snow below.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Ongoing strong winds can be expected to continue creating thin fresh wind slabs in lee terrain on Sunday. Watch for patterns of wind transport as you gain elevation and exercise extra caution when traveling around ridge crests.
Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.Use caution in lee areas. Wind loading will be forming fresh slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2