Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 1st, 2017–Apr 2nd, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Jasper.

Resist the temptation to travel on big slopes that have not yet avalanched.  Weaknesses deep in the snowpack can be triggered from shallow snowpack areas and have the potential to run full path. 

Weather Forecast

10 cm of snow expected Saturday night with easing SW winds.  Freezing level falling to 1300 m.  Cloudy spring-like weather Sunday and Monday.  Sun and warm temperatures are predicting starting on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

Recent large cornices failures have triggered the deep persistent slab creating size 3 avalanches. Previous S-M SW winds formed windslab on lee aspects. A thick and strengthening mid-pack is bridging basal weakness. The lower snowpack is weak with depth hoar, Nov rain crust and basal facets. Isothermal conditions below tree-line on solar aspects.

Avalanche Summary

Recent cornice and windslab failures have triggered the deep persistent slab creating large full path avalanches that are traveling well into historic run-outs. Loose wet avalanches have been occurring on steeper south and west aspect below tree-line.

Confidence

Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Tuesday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New windslab formed by recent SW winds could be reactive and if triggered, could step down to the deep persistent slab.
Use caution in lee areas. New snowfall mixed with wind loading will created slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Cornice failure is hard to predict but is more likely with inputs like solar radiation and wind-loading.
Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

This problem is unlikely to disappear.  It can be triggered by large loads like cornice fall or windslab failure.  Human triggering is most likely from shallow spots or on steep unsupported slopes.
Be cautious in shallow snowpack areas where triggering is more likely.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3