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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 16th, 2017–Feb 17th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

Use caution and conservative terrain choices if venturing into newly opened  back-country areas. The snowpack is weak and touchy and we have had no field teams or snowpack reports in these areas.

Weather Forecast

Temperatures are to drop below freezing tonight and remain there through the weekend.  5 cm new snow with moderate SW winds possible overnight, winds are forecast to ease to light by tomorrow afternoon.  Expect a cloudy weekend with a few light flurries.

Snowpack Summary

Isothermal conditions are being reported below tree-line.  10-15 new snow has fallen on previous hard windslab in the alpine and open tree-line features. In sheltered locations tree-line and above, the new snow is adding to a cohesive soft slab that is sitting over a weak and faceted mid-pack. The snowpack is delicate and untrustworthy.

Avalanche Summary

Late this afternoon, small loose wet avalanches were being reported below tree-line on steep rocky terrain.  Surprisingly, little other activity was observed or reported today.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

The new snow has buried and is adding to last weekend's windslab in the alpine and open tree-line features.  These slabs are showing the potential for wide propagation in connected features.
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Avalanches initiated within the storm snow may step down to deeper layers and in some cases gouging to ground in thin snowpack areas.
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Wet

Isothermal conditions expected in valley bottoms.
Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2