Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 26th, 2013 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs.

mike eder, Parks Canada

Jasper.

If the weather models underestimate the snowfall, avalanche danger could increase early next week.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Clouds will increase starting Sunday morning with moderate snowfalls beginning Sunday evening through to Tuesday morning. Initial estimates were up to 30cm, but this has been tapered back in this afternoon's forecast. Winds will continue light to moderate from the Southwest and will shift to a Northwest flow as the system goes through on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Most areas above treeline and in the alpine have been wind blasted. Hard slabs are widespread, and provide a strong bridge over any underlying weakness. Some solar affect has occurred in the high alpine onÂ Westerly slopes. Below treeline, the snowpack is facetted throughout but no slab overlies this weakness.

Avalanche Summary

One size 2.5 slab avalanche was observed originating in a cross loaded alpine gully on a Southwesterly aspect at approximately 2800 meters indicating that the sun is gaining strength in the afternoons.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Hard slabs are widespread and present the only real problem in the snowpack. Although it seems unlikely, it could be possible to trigger an avalanche in a steep pocket with a hard slab. Mostly these slabs are bridging any weakness underneath.

Be careful with wind loaded pockets

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 27th, 2013 4:00PM