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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 26th, 2013–Jan 27th, 2013
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Jasper.

If the weather models underestimate the snowfall, avalanche danger could increase early next week.

Weather Forecast

Clouds will increase starting Sunday morning with moderate snowfalls beginning Sunday evening through to Tuesday morning. Initial estimates were up to 30cm, but this has been tapered back in this afternoon's forecast. Winds will continue light to moderate from the Southwest and will shift to a Northwest flow as the system goes through on Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Most areas above treeline and in the alpine have been wind blasted. Hard slabs are widespread, and provide a strong bridge over any underlying weakness. Some solar affect has occurred in the high alpine on  Westerly slopes. Below treeline, the snowpack is facetted throughout but no slab overlies this weakness.

Avalanche Summary

One size 2.5 slab avalanche was observed originating in a cross loaded alpine gully on a Southwesterly aspect at approximately 2800 meters indicating that the sun is gaining strength in the afternoons.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Hard slabs are widespread and present the only real problem in the snowpack. Although it seems unlikely, it could be possible to trigger an avalanche in a steep pocket with a hard slab. Mostly these slabs are bridging any weakness underneath.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely

Expected Size: 1 - 3