Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 12th, 2016 9:04AM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs.
esharp,
Avalanche Canada
There is quite a bit of uncertainty in the snowfall forecast. If you wake up with more than 30cm of snow on the ground avalanche danger will be higher than advertised.
Summary
Confidence
Low - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain
Weather Forecast
There is still quite a bit of disagreement between weather models regarding snow fall amounts for the tail end of this storm. Moderate to snowfall is expected to continue overnight. I expect between 20 and 50cm of new snow will have fallen by the end of the storm. Winds will be strong from the southwest becoming on Wednesday. The freezing level is expected to hover around 1700m. Thursday will be mainly dry and Friday could see some isolate flurries with light winds from the southwest. The freezing level is expected to drop to around 1500m by the end of the week.
Avalanche Summary
Small fresh wind slabs are starting to be reactive to skier triggering at treeline.
Snowpack Summary
As of publishing up to 15cm of new snow is sitting above a sun crust on steep solar aspects, or a fresh layer of surface hoar on sheltered and shady slopes at all elevations. Around 20 cm below this is a second buried weak layer again consisting of a melt-freeze crust on solar aspects in the alpine or well-developed surface hoar in sheltered areas at treeline and lower elevations. Deeper still, the mid and lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of shallow snowpack areas that may be more faceted. Cornices are forming at ridgeline.
Problems
Storm Slabs
I suspect that we will see increasingly react reactive storm slabs as the storm snow settles through the day.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 13th, 2016 2:00PM
