Avalanche Forecast
Jan 4th, 2019–Jan 6th, 2019
Alpine
4:
High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4:
High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4:
High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4:
High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3:
Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3:
Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3:
Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3:
Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2:
Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Regions: Vancouver Island.
Main concerns: Storm Slab, Loose Wet.
Confidence
Low - high degree of variability between both snowfall and rainfall amounts in western and eastern zones of the forecast area.
Travel & Terrain Advice
Utilize only non avalanche or simple terrain. Seek alternatives to steep terrain and expect even small loose wet avalanches to have to strength to push a mountain traveler into and over terrain traps. Large storm slab avalanches have the potential to run full path, be aware of your positioning in terrain and avoid exposure in avalanche run outs.
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche control teams at Mount Washington reported widespread loose wet natural avalanches on all aspects and elevations treeline and below.
Snowpack Summary
Past snowfall and a mix of both snowfall and rain dependent on elevation was then followed by moderate to heavy rain fall. All combined with strong south wind. The upper snow pack is wet to moist and currently unconsolidated, expect above 1700-1800 meters to find heavy and deep snowfall accumulations. The snow pack has seen rapid input of both snow and rain and requires cooling and time for settlement and bonding to begin.
Snowpack Details
Surface: unconsolidated and wet. Upper: unconsolidated and wet. Mid: well settled. Lower: well settled.
Past Weather
Continued heavy precipitation, rising freezing levels and strong south western winds persisted, over the past 48 hours. Freezing levels breached the 1700 meter level in many areas and up to 40 mm of precipitation in the form of rain fell upon the snow pack.
Weather Forecast
A low pressure is stalled to the west of the region and will continue to bring to the forecast area, heavy precipitation, strong winds, and high freezing levels. Beginning mid day Friday, expect this storm system to begin its exodus with temps and freezing levels returning to conditions favorable for snowfall. FRIDAY: 30-50 mm of precipitation with freezing levels descending late afternoon to around 1200 m. Winds strong from the South. SATURDAY: 10-20 cm of accumulation with freezing levels around 1000 m . Winds moderate from the East North East. SUNDAY: 5-10 cm of accumulation with freezing levels around 200 m. Winds Moderate from the South West.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
At elevations above 1700 meters in the alpine storm slabs have formed. Expect these avalanches to be present on all aspects and if triggered have the potential to be greater than size three in destructive size.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 3 - 4
Loose Wet
Found at all elevations and on all aspects, loose wet avalanches even when small can be strong enough to push a mountain traveler into and over terrain traps. Expect on steep terrain these problems to gain mass and could be greater than size two in destructive size.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3