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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 8th, 2018–Dec 9th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Avalanches are most likely in alpine terrain where the snow feels stiff or slabby, especially on wind-affected slopes.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Increasing cloud, light wind, alpine temperatures drop to -15 C.SUNDAY: Mainly cloudy with chance of light flurries in the afternoon, moderate wind out of the southwest, alpine high temperatures around -6 C.MONDAY: Cloudy, moderate wind out of the west, alpine high temperatures around -4 C.TUESDAY: Flurries with 2-4 cm of snow, moderate wind out of the west, alpine high temperatures around -4 C.

Avalanche Summary

Recent avalanche activity has been limited to a few small wind slabs and loose dry avalanches mostly in steep alpine terrain.The last notable avalanche reported was a size 2 human triggered avalanche last Sunday in Cornice Bowl north of Fernie. It occurred on a northwest facing feature at 2300 m and ran on a November crust. There are good photos in this MIN report.

Snowpack Summary

Early season conditions prevail in this region with roughly 100 cm of snow in alpine areas and much less at lower elevations. Surface conditions range from soft power, to hard wind slab, and some sun crusts.The main concern is the snowpack is a combination of weak sugary snow and crusts in the bottom half of the snowpack. See the snow profile in our field team's MIN report here for a visual representation of the snowpack. The crust is most prevalent at and above treeline and is likely most problematic on north-facing features, especially those that are large and planar in nature.

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

The weak snow in the lower snowpack could produce large avalanches. Be cautions in areas where the surface snow has formed a cohesive slab, such as wind deposits.
Back off if you encounter signs of instability like whumphing, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2