Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Vancouver Island.
Storm and wind slabs may remain touchy to human traffic.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.
Weather Forecast
TUESDAY NIGHT: Partly cloudy with no precipitation, 20 km/h northwest wind, treeline temperature -5 C.
WEDNESDAY: Increasing clouds with late afternoon snowfall, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, 20 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -5 C.
THURSDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 20 to 40 cm, 60 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -2 C, freezing level rising to 1200 m.
FRIDAY: Partly cloudy with no precipitation, 30 km/h northwest wind, treeline temperature -6 C.
Avalanche Summary
A natural avalanche cycle likely occurred during the stormy periods on Sunday and Monday. Natural avalanche activity likely diminished on Tuesday. The likelihood of human-triggered avalanches may remain elevated, with the uncertainty on how quickly the storm snow will bond to the snowpack.
We'd appreciate any observations while you are out travelling, even just a photo, on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
Over 100 cm of snow has accumulated since January 1. The snow has formed touchy storm slabs in sheltered terrain and wind slabs in exposed terrain at higher elevations.
The storm snow overlies a thin but hard melt-freeze crust or ice layer found up to about 1700 m. In wind-exposed terrain, the snow likely overlies previously wind-hardened snow. There is also the possibility of the storm snow sitting on weak and sugary faceted grains and/or feathery surface hoar that formed during the extended cold period in late December. There is uncertainty in how long it will take for the storm snow to bond to these various surfaces.
The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and a few hard melt-freeze crusts.
Terrain and Travel
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
- Make observations and assess conditions continually as you travel.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm snow totals have exceeded 100 cm since the weekend, which has formed touchy storm slabs in areas sheltered from the wind and wind slabs in exposed areas at higher elevations. These slabs may take some time to stabilize, as they sit on various smooth and/or weak layers.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1.5 - 3