Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 2nd, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

Avalanche Canada wlewis, Avalanche Canada

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New snow and wind will form touchy storm slabs at all elevations. Monitor conditions throughout the day, hazard will increase as snowfall continues. Keep terrain selection conservative until the storm snow has stabilized.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Scattered snowfall continues as the front exits the interior. Cold arctic air keeps conditions cold and partly clear this week.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Strong southwest winds continue with up to 5cm expected overnight. 

MONDAY: Up to 15cm of low density snow, tapering off in the afternoon. Alpine high of -12 with winds backing off to light southerlies. Greatest accumulations are expected in the South and East of the Cariboos. 

TUESDAY: Chance of flurries with light southeast winds. Alpine high of -15. 

WEDNESDAY: Clearing skies with light southwest winds. Alpine high of -15. 

Avalanche Summary

Loose dry natural avalanches to size 1.5 have been observed this week, caused by the continued cold and clear weather creating a weak interface at the surface. Expect this interface to create a poor bond between the old and new snow as snow accumulates.

A persistent slab avalanche was observed in the region on Wednesday. It is believed to have released naturally within the last few days. It initiated around 2200 m on a steep northwest aspect. Limited information is not available due to poor visibility.

We'd appreciate if you submit your observations to the Mountain Information Network, even just a photo.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow with strong south-southwest winds continue to form new slabs with deeper deposits on north and east facing slopes. This load will be deposited on weak and wind effected surfaces - expect a poor bond and reactive conditions. 

Another weak layer of feathery surface hoar may be found around 20 to 50 cm deep. It is most likely found in sheltered terrain features in the lower alpine and treeline, or open features below treeline (such as cut blocks). Although we haven't received reports of this layer being a concern, it has been noted in neighbouring regions.

The early December crust sits 60-100cm deep in the snowpack up to 2000m, with a layer of weak and faceted crystals above. This layer of loose and sugary snow is causing large destructive avalanches in other regions. This layer is spatially variable in the Cariboos and may only be a problem in select parts of the region. Read more about it here

Terrain and Travel

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Be alert to conditions that change with elevation and wind exposure.
  • Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Storm slabs will build with continued snowfall over the day. Strong south/southwest winds will create deeper deposits in wind loaded features, use caution approaching ridge crest and cross loaded features. 

Reactive slabs are expected as new snow falls over weak crystals and wind effected surfaces. Larger avalanches could be triggered in areas near Barkerville where new snow falls on a weak surface hoar layer.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Jan 3rd, 2022 4:00PM