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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 22nd, 2016–Jan 23rd, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

A Special Public Avalanche Warning is in effect for this region.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A cooling and drying trend is expected to start on Saturday. Cloudy skies, light winds, cool temperatures and a few flurries are expected on Saturday, with sunny skies possible on Sunday/ Monday.For more details check out https://avalanche.ca/weather.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous large (size 2-3) persistent slabs failed naturally or with artificial triggers this week. Many of these were remotely triggered, highlighting the extreme sensitivity of the buried weak layer. These events appear to be on all elevations and aspects, but seem to have been somewhat limited in distribution across the region. On Friday, a large natural avalanche cycle to size 3.5 was reported by one operator near Valemount. In other parts of the region, the persistent slab may not get such a good clean-out and the problem may linger for human-triggering beyond the end of the storm.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy new snow and strong winds have created storm slabs in many places and wind slabs on features lee to the south. This will also add load and stress to the already volatile persistent slab. There are a couple of highly reactive layers of surface hoar buried in the upper snowpack, which have been responsible for recent avalanches. The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong, with any weak layers considered dormant for now. Snowpack depths are variable and shallow snowpack areas may have weak facetted crystals near the ground.

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Numerous persistent slabs have been triggered this week. Even as the weather improves, this problem could remain touchy.
Use conservative route selection and be aware of the potential for remote triggering. >Extra caution required in open terrain features at and below treeline.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 6

Storm Slabs

The recent storm has created storm slabs in many areas, and wind slabs on slopes lee to the south. These could be easy to trigger with the weight of a person or sled.
Travel on ridgetops to avoid wind slabs on slopes below.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5