Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

The storm system is expected to bring around 15mm of precipitation to the south of the Cariboos region on Tuesday and 5-10mm to the north of the region. Winds are expected to be strong from the SW and freezing levels will climb as high as 2000m by Tuesday afternoon. On Wednesday and Thursday, freezing levels should remain around 2000m and winds will remain moderate or strong in the alpine. There is currently some uncertainty regarding precipitation amounts for Wednesday and Thursday with models currently showing another 10-30mm.

The storm snow is reactive to ski cutting and is producing isolated avalanches up to size 1. I expect wind loaded areas in the alpine to be the main concern at the moment but this will become more widespread as the storm progresses.

Around 15-30cm of new snow sits on a weak layer of surface hoar. Reports from the region suggest that anywhere from 50-150 cm of settling snow overlies one or more weak layers which formed during November. Snowpack tests suggest that these weak layers are getting harder to trigger but still have the potential to produce large avalanches if triggered. Recent wind has created wind slabs in lee features in exposed alpine terrain.