The snowpack has been rain-soaked at most elevations, while new wind slabs exist at ridge top. Sunny breaks on Monday may have a destabilizing effect on the snowpack. Pay close attention to conditions that change with elevation and time of day.
Summary
Confidence
Fair - Due to the number of field observations
Weather Forecast
A weak ridge will deflect wet pacific moisture streams to the north of the region. The south coast will only receive trace amounts of precipitation throughout the forecast period while high freezing levels will persist. Monday: Mix of sun and cloud with very light rain / Strong southwest winds / Freezing levels at 3100m Tuesday: Overcast skies with very light rain / Moderate southwest winds / Freezing level at 2200m Wednesday: Increased cloud and light snow / Light southwest winds / Freezing levels at 1500m
Avalanche Summary
At the time of publishing this bulletin, observations were extremely limited. That said, I'm sure recent rain sparked a round of loose wet avalanche activity, while wind slab avalanches may have occurred at higher elevations. Although unlikely, deeper persistent avalanches are still a concern in isolated terrain as the snowpack adjusts to recent storm loading and penetration form rain. Any activity on these deeper weaknesses would be very destructive in nature.
Snowpack Summary
Up to 50 cm of settled storm snow has now been saturated by rain up to about 2100m. At the highest elevations, moist snowfall has been shifted into dense wind slabs in lee terrain. New cornice development has also been noted. The older storm snow overlies a hard crust and/or surface hoar layer which formed in January. The bond at this interface will be largely elevation dependant as rain may have penetrated the snowpack enough to dissolve the crust in many areas. At higher elevations where snow has fallen, this interface may still be reactive with the potential for large avalanches.Deeper snowpack weaknesses have become unreactive, but a recent snow profile highlights the stark hardness contrast between a deep persistent weakness and the surrounding snow. Scenarios like this with deeply buried soft snow surrounded by hard snow aren't confidence inspiring because it all hinges on the strength of the overlying slab, which is often volatile and susceptible to significant warming and loading. Especially with very heavy triggers (like a cornice fall) in the wrong spot (like a thin snowpack area).
jlammers,
Avalanche Canada
