Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Sea To Sky.
Start (and finish) your day early and avoid exposure to sun-exposed avalanche terrain. Look for high elevation north facing objectives without cornices overhead, and plan your egress route carefully.
Check out the Forecaster's Blog for more on managing spring conditions.
Confidence
High - Confidence is due to a stable weather pattern with little change expected.
Weather Forecast
A ridge of high pressure, with sunny skies and high freezing levels continues to dominate the weather pattern this weekend.
Saturday night - Clear / light wind / alpine low temperature near +5 / freezing level 3200 mÂ
Sunday - Sunny / light to moderate northeast wind / alpine high temperature near +5 / freezing level dropping to 2800 m
Monday - Sunny / light wind / alpine high temperature near 0 / freezing level 2500 m
Tuesday - Sunny / light wind / alpine high temperature near 0 / freezing level 2500 m
Avalanche Summary
There have been several solar triggered wet loose avalanches reported in recent days, up to size 2.5, on solar aspects. There have also been a number of cornice failures reported over the past week.
Looking forward, wet loose avalanches and cornice failures are expected to continue with sun and warm temperatures. The likelihood and potential size of these increases when temperatures do not dip below freezing overnight, and avalanche activity will likely begin earlier in the day with each subsequent warm day.
Wind slabs may still be possible to trigger on high elevation north aspects.
Snowpack Summary
High overnight freezing levels mean that the snow surface remains moist or wet in many areas. In places where the surface forms a crust overnight, it should quickly soften during they day with sunshine and warm temperatures. The highest elevation north aspects may still hold soft snow or wind slabs.
Cornices are large and looming along ridgelines. Sun and warm temperatures will increase the chances of cornice failures, especially when temperatures remain above zero overnight.
Terrain and Travel
- The more the snowpack warms-up and weakens, the more conservative you`ll want to be with your terrain selection.
- Avoid exposure to sunny slopes, especially in the afternoon.
- Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
- Avoid areas with overhead hazard, especially solar aspects.
- Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
The snow will quickly lose cohesion and become unstable with sun and warm temperatures.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Cornices
Cornices are large and looming along many ridgelines. They become increasingly unstable during periods of warming.
Aspects: North, North East, East, West, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3