Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Thursday night: Increasing cloud, moderate to strong southwest ridgetop wind, freezing level valley bottom.

Friday: Mostly cloudy, light to moderate northwest ridgetop wind, freezing level 1000 m.

Saturday: Mix of sun and cloud, moderate northwest ridgetop wind, freezing level 700 m.

Sunday: Flurries, moderate to strong northwest ridgetop wind, freezing level 800 m.

On Wednesday, a widespread natural avalanche cycle up to size 2.5 was reported on all aspects and elevations. A recent MIN report observed from Rossland shows a size 3 natural persistent slab avalanche that occurred during or post-storm.

Last week, a naturally-triggered size 3 deep persistent slab avalanche released on a southeast aspect at 2200 m in the Rossland range. The avalanche likely failed on the weak layers described in the snowpack summary and scrubbed to the ground. 

20-40 cm of recent storm snow accompanied by strong to extreme westerly wind has built reactive storm and wind slabs at upper elevations. These slabs may be extra sensitive where they overlie surface hoar in sheltered terrain or a crust on solar aspects. Warmer temperatures and a period of rain overnight Tuesday has formed a thin surface crust up to around 2000 m.

Two weak layers are buried in close proximity to one another. They are 70 to 130 cm deep. The layers are composed of surface hoar and faceted grains and they overlie a hard melt-freeze crust. This recent MIN report observed from Rossland on Wednesday the 13th shows good evidence of a large natural slab avalanche failing on the early December persistent layer during or post-storm. This suggests that it remains possible for riders to trigger these layers.

Another layer of faceted grains above a melt-freeze crust that formed in early November is upwards of 200 cm below the surface. This has been the suspected failure layer of a few very large avalanches that released last week in the Rossland range.

• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
• Don't be too cavalier with decision making, storm slabs may remain sensitive to human triggering.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
• Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.