Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.

An offshore low will push bands of warm air and precipitation in upcoming days which make it challenging to forecast the precise timing, temperatures and total snowfall amounts. 

Saturday night: Cloudy with clear periods and isolated flurries, trace to 5cm of new snow, moderate to strong south wind and alpine low temperatures -11C. 

Sunday: Cloudy with snow flurries, 5-10 cm new snow, strong south or southeast winds, alpine high temperatures around -5C with freezing levels rising to 120 0m.  

Monday: Cloudy with isolated flurries and clear periods, 5 to 15 cm new snow, moderate south wind and alpine high temperatures around -9C.

Tuesday: Cloudy with sunny periods and isolated flurries, trace to 3 cm new snow, moderate southwest wind gusting strong and alpine high temperatures around -10C.

There have been no recent avalanche reports in the region, although we anticipate increasing moderate to strong south winds may form wind slabs to form in open alpine, exposed ridge crests and open areas below treeline. This MIN from Friday reports that recent 10-15 cm is sluffing easily and is great evidence of how slippery the surface hoar layer/crust/facet layer is and how reactive it might be once more slab properties exist in the snowpack.  

We're continuing to track a layer of surface hoar from early January (buried 50-80 cm) which has been trending towards unreactive, but was previously a concern in the North Blue River valley. The most recent activity reported on this layer comes from January 16, when professional operators reported a small (size 1) avalanche releasing 40 cm deep. This and snowpack tests that continue to sporadically produce easier, more sudden snowpack results make this layer worthy of continued monitoring.

Another trace to 10 cm is forecast to fall overnight Saturday and throughout the day on Sunday. This will bring recent snow totals from ZERO to 25 cm, and expect surface conditions to be equally variable. This trace-25 cm of recent snow has buried a weak layer of surface hoar that reported to be widespread and sits on a variety of old surfaces including old wind slabs, soft faceted snow or thin crusts in steep solar. Below 1600 m, 30-40 cm of snow is settling above a decomposing melt freeze crust. Check out this MIN from Chappell creek. 

A weak of layer of surface hoar and crust from early January can now be found buried 40-90 cm deep. The curst tapers above 1700m. This layer last demonstrated reactivity over a week ago (Jan 16) in the south of the region near Valemount. It is most suspect in sheltered, open slopes at and below treeline. Although results from recent snowpack tests show increasingly resistant results (check out this MIN from near Barkerville), slope-specific assessment is warranted. 

Deeper in the snowpack, a couple of older persistent weak layers may still be identifiable from late and early December, consisting of surface hoar and a crust with faceted snow and buried anywhere from 70-150 cm deep. Prolonged periods of inactivity and unreactive snowpack test results suggest that these layers have trended towards dormancy. 

• Wind slabs are most reactive during their formation.
• Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.