Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Sunday night: Cloudy, isolated flurries with trace accumulations, light northwest winds, freezing level dropping to valley bottom.

Monday: A mix of sun and cloud, light northwest winds, alpine high temperatures around -8 C.

Tuesday: Partly cloudy with flurries bringing about 5 cm of new snow, winds shift to the southwest and increase to strong, alpine high temperatures around -7 C.

Wednesday: Mix of sun and cloud, isolated flurries with trace accumulations, light west winds, alpine high temperatures around -12 C.

Recent snow and wind has added a new storm slab problem and obscured a previous wind slab problem, while also adding more load to the Jan 11 buried surface hoar. Cornices may be reaching their breaking point and can act as triggers on slopes below. 

Observations are still limited, but professional operators reported a small (size 1) avalanche releasing 40 cm deep on the Jan 11th surface hoar layer on Saturday. Observers south of Valemount also reported reactivity on the surface hoar buried down 45 cm. They saw both shooting cracks and slab activity at 1700m on an easterly aspect. 

Since field observations in this region are limited, please consider submitting your observations to the Mountain Information Network. 

Snow accumulations over the weekend ranged from 5-25 cm, with higher totals in the east of the region. Winds have switched direction from the south to the northwest, creating a tricky reverse wind-loading pattern at upper elevations. Prior to the recent snowfall, observers reported extensive wind-affect at treeline and alpine elevations across the region (check out these MINs from near McBride and Barkerville). Recent new snow may be hiding wind slabs that were visible before the snow fell. Ongoing snow and wind over the past week have contributed to notable cornice growth.

40-60 cm of snow from the past week has buried a weak of layer of surface hoar that has shown reactivity in snowpack tests. This persistent weak layer is more likely to be preserved at elevations above where a thick crust exists and below more wind-affected terrain. It is most suspect in sheltered, open slopes at and below treeline.

A couple of older persistent weak layers exist in the mid to lower snowpack. The distribution of these layers is variable, but they follow a similar pattern to the layer discussed above. The upper layer from late December, down about 70-120 cm, consists of spotty surface hoar at shaded treeline and below treeline elevations. Snowpack tests have been giving increasingly resistant results. The lower layer from early December buried 150 cm deep consists of a combination of decomposing surface hoar with a crust and faceted snow. This layer is most prevalent in areas near Valemount. Observations from adjacent regions show the lower layer as largely unreactive, but it remains a prominent feature in the lower snowpack.

• Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
• Recent new snow may be hiding windslabs that were easily visible before the snow fell.
• Approach steep open slopes at and below treeline cautiously, buried surface hoar may exist.
• Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.