Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Lizard.
The area around Fernie is forecasted to get the heaviest snowfall in this next storm. Avalanche danger will increase through the day as snow falls. Observe how much new snow is piling up as you travel through terrain, and retreat to mellower terrain if you are seeing signs of instability like shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday, east of Fernie, a couple of small to large natural and rider triggered avalanches were reported that involved cornices. See the MIN report for more information.
Looking forward, fresh storm slabs will be reactive to the weight of a rider earlier in the day, and naturally triggered avalanches may become more likely by the afternoon and into the evening as more snow piles up.
Please continue to share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.
Snowpack Summary
Moderate to heavy precipitation and moderate southwest wind is likely to form reactive storm slabs on the surface.
10 to 20 cm of storm snow from late last week was redistributed by moderate to strong winds which developed wind slabs at treeline and alpine elevations. This overlies a melt-freeze crust below 1900 m
The mid-pack is consolidated in the Lizard Range with a robust, frozen crust buried 70 to 90 cm.
Weather Summary
Monday Night
Cloudy. 0-2 cm of snow expected. Moderate southwest ridgetop wind, trending to strong west at higher elevations. Treeline temperature around -5 ºC.
Tuesday
Cloudy. 10-20 cm of snow expected. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop wind, trending to strong at higher elevations. Treeline temperature around -5 ºC.
Wednesday
Mostly cloudy. 20-30 cm of snow expected overnight, tapering off through the day. Moderate west or northwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around -7 °C.
Thursday
Sunny in the morning, increasing cloud through the day. No new snow expected. Light to moderate southwest ridgetop wind, strong west at higher elevations. Rapid temperature drop overnight, freezing level back to 1250 m by the afternoon.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
- Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
- Be careful to keep storm day fever from luring you out into bigger terrain features.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs will be reactive to the weight of a rider earlier in the day, and naturally triggered avalanches may become more likely by the afternoon and into the evening as more snow piles up.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5