Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 27th, 2016 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Cornices.

jlammers, Avalanche Canada

South Rockies.

Some parts of the region may see heavy precipitation on Monday, and the Avalanche Danger will rise throughout the day. Pay close attention to how much snow falls in your area, and be prepared to back off to simple terrain.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

10-15cm of new snow is forecast for Sunday night while similar amounts are expected on Monday. (Locally heavy accumulations are possible in areas east of the divide) On Tuesday and Wednesday the region will see a mix of sun and cloud as a ridge of high pressure develops over the province. Ridgetop winds should be moderate from the west on Sunday night, becoming strong and northeasterly by Monday afternoon. On Tuesday and Wednesday, winds will be light. Freezing levels will sit at about 1500m on Monday, and then rise to about 2000m on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were reported on Saturday. I expect a new round of storm slab activity in response to new snow and wind on Sunday night and Monday.

Snowpack Summary

Large cornices loom above lee slopes at treeline and in the alpine. New snow and wind on Sunday night and Monday are expected to form potent new storm slabs. The new snow will overlie stubborn wind slabs in shaded high elevation terrain and a hard crust in most other places. Deeply buried weak layers near the ground are becoming hard to find, but may remain sensitive to triggering from significant warming or with large loads such as cornice fall.

Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow and variable winds on Sunday night and Monday are expected to form potent new storm slabs. There's good chance we'll see heavy precipitation in some areas so I'd be heading out with a conservative mind set.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Cornices

Stormy weather will promote ongoing cornice development. Large fragile cornices currently threaten many slopes, and could be the large trigger required to awaken deeper weak layers.

Stay well to the windward side of corniced ridges.>Do not travel on slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Mar 28th, 2016 2:00PM