Avalanche Forecast

High -

SUNDAY: Mostly sunny. Ridge wind moderate, northeast. Temperature -10. Freezing level valley bottom.MONDAY: Mostly sunny. Ridge wind light, northeast. Temperature -5. Freezing level 800 m. Alpine inversion.TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy, light flurries. Accumulation up to 5 cm. Ridge wind moderate, west. Temperature -5. Freezing level 1000 m. Alpine inversion.

Friday there were isolated reports of natural cornice triggered and wind slab activity up to size 2.5, as well as evidence of an older large, natural size 3.5, in high alpine terrain in the Duffey Lake area.On Thursday, the southern part of the region reported a natural slab avalanche size 3.5 from a NE-SE aspect near 1800 m and numerous wet slabs up to size 2.5. An avalanche control mission using explosives in the northern part of the region saw wind slab results up to size 1.5, only running in the surface snow and not stepping down deeper.

Recent snowfall totals are highly variable. In the south, up to 40 cm of new snow fell bringing the alpine totals up to 60 cm this week. In the north, new snow totals are half that and rapidly decrease below 1800m. This new snow remains unconsolidated in wind-sheltered, shaded areas at upper elevations but has formed wind slabs in open areas at treeline and above, and scoured areas at ridge crests..  At lower elevations 5-10 cm of new snow covers a thick crust, while a surface crust is present on solar aspects. Below the snow surface, 80-150 cm down in the mid pack sits the mid- January crust. It generally shows signs of bonding to the overlying snow; however, I would remain suspect of this deeper layer while the snowpack adjusts to the new load. Thinner snowpack areas may have a higher likelihood of an avalanche failing on this layer. Large, looming cornices exist, they are fragile and demand respect.