Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Nov 17th, 2011 9:54AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Storm Slabs.

Avalanche Canada ccampbell, Avalanche Canada

This bulletin is based on limited data. Local variation in conditions and danger levels are likely to exist. To produce more accurate forecasts, we need information. Please send an email to forecaster@avalanche.ca.

Summary

Confidence

Poor - Due to limited field observationsfor the entire period

Weather Forecast

Friday and Saturday: Mostly clear with freezing levels around 200m and light northwesterly winds. Light flurries possible for coastal areas on Friday.Sunday: Increasing clouds with light flurries and light southwesterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports include wind slab avalanches up to Size 2.5 failing on a surface hoar layer that was buried earlier this week. Some slabs were up to a metre deep and pulled back into low angled terrain on ridges showing incredible propensity for propagation. Wind and storm slabs will likely remain susceptible to human triggering throughout the weekend, and probably much longer in areas where they're failing on surface hoar a facet/crust combination.

Snowpack Summary

Another 20-30cm of upside-down storm snow brings total snowpack depths up to a metre or so in sheltered treeline areas, but expect to find much deeper pockets of wind-blown snow immediately down-wind of terrain features and ridge crests. A thick rain crust from last week is 70 or 80 cm off the ground at treeline and lower alpine elevations, with facets above and below in some locations. Above that is a buried layer of surface hoar that formed during the clear weather over the weekend. These weaknesses now have a sufficiently thick and cohesive slab to produce avalanches in most areas and they have all the characteristics of an avalanche problem that could persist for extended periods.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
Near ridgecrests and terrain breaks, and in cross-loaded gullies. Slabs could pull back onto low-angled ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
Any open slope with enough snow to smooth out ground roughness.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Nov 18th, 2011 9:00AM

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