Avalanche Forecast
Regions: South Coast Inland.
Avalanche danger will increase as touchy storm slabs build through the day Sunday.
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.
Weather Forecast
Saturday night: Flurries bringing a trace of new snow. Light to moderate southwest wind. Freezing level 1000 m.
Sunday: 10-25 cm new snow with lightest accumulations in the Duffey. Strong southwest wind. Freezing level 1000 m.
Monday: Overnight snowfall up to 10 cm of new snow in most areas and 20 cm for the Coquihalla. Mix of sun and cloud. Light to moderate northwest wind. Freezing level 700 m.
Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud. Light to moderate southwest wind. Freezing level 1300 m.
Avalanche Summary
Natural storm slab and loose dry avalanches to size 1.5 were observed in the Duffey on Saturday.
Snowpack Summary
10-25 cm of new snow will fall through the day Sunday. Forecast strong southwest winds are expected to redistribute the new snow at alpine and treeline elevations, loading lee terrain features. 20-30 cm of recent snow now sits over a layer of widespread surface facets, surface hoar in sheltered areas or sun crusts on solar aspects. Storm slabs are expected to slide easily on these weak layers.
In the north part of the region (e.g. Duffey/Hurley/Goldbridge), a deep instability exists in the snowpack, consisting of a weak basal facet-crust complex. Sporadic avalanche activity on this layer is keeping it on our radar, with the latest report described here. In the south of the region, including the Coquihalla and Manning areas, there are no concerns about deeply buried weak layers.
Terrain and Travel
- Use increased caution at all elevations. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
- If triggered, storm slabs in-motion may step down to deeper layers and result in very large avalanches.
- Good day to make conservative terrain choices.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
As storm slabs build through the day Sunday, 10-30 cm of new snow overlies surface facets, surface hoar and sun crusts. Recent avalanche activity indicates a poor bond between these old surfaces and the new snow. Storm slabs will be deepest in lee terrain features near ridges, as the snow is falling with strong southwest wind.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Almost Certain
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Deep Persistent Slabs
In the north of the region (e.g. Duffey, Hurley, Goldbridge), a buried weak layer lingers at the base of the snowpack. The most likely place to trigger this layer is in shallow and rocky terrain. We doubt that the new loads from the present storm will be sufficient to induce pervasive avalanche activity on these layers, but as is typical with deep persistent avalanche problems, there is uncertainty.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2.5 - 3.5