Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Wind speed and direction is uncertain on Tuesday

On Tuesday night up to 15cm of new snow may be expected with light to moderate ridgetop winds. By the afternoon, we should expect a mix of sun and cloud and light northwest winds. On Thursday and Friday a series of Pacific systems will move through the region bringing up to 15cm of new snow and strong southwest winds each day. Freezing levels should sit at valley bottom on Wednesday and then rise to about 1300m on Thursday and Friday.

In the north of the region on Monday, a few persistent slab avalanches to size 2 were remotely triggered between 1600 and 1700m from a distances of about 5 metres. This demonstrates the sensitive nature of this instability in some areas. A skier also ski cut a size 1 persistent slab avalanche in the Kootenay Pass area. The early January surface hoar was the culprit in all of these events. New snow and wind on Tuesday night may also spark a new round of wind slab activity on Wednesday.

Up to 15cm of new snow is expected on Tuesday night. If ridgetop winds are in the moderate to strong range, new wind slabs can be expected in upper elevation lee terrain. 40-60 cm below the surface you'll find a weak layer of surface hoar and a hard crust on steep solar aspects. This layer seems variably reactive. Some test results suggest an improving bond at this interface while remote triggering and Mountain Information Network reports of whumpfing show this layer is still sensitive to light loads in some areas. I would be increasingly cautious in areas where the overlying slab is deep and has gained cohesion through wind pressing, warming, and/or settlement. The mid and lower snowpack are generally well settled and strong.