Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 4th, 2022 4:00PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Wet.

Avalanche Canada bchristie, Avalanche Canada

Email

Consider the effect of the sun in your decision making on Saturday. Recent snow has fallen with very little wind. Slopes that stay out of the sun should have the best skiing, and lower avalanche danger.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - The snowpack structure is generally well understood. Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

General cooling and clearing trend with cold northern air providing good refreezes overnight, but upslope flow will continue to bring spotty cloud cover and bits of snowfall through the forecast period.

Friday Night: Mostly cloudy, clearing by the morning. 0-2 cm of snow expected, but unstable air could lead to localized heavier snowfall. Light east wind, trending to moderate north at higher elevations. Treeline low around -11 °C.

Saturday: Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. Light variable ridgetop wind, trending to moderate north at higher elevations. Freezing level rising to around 1300 m. Treeline high around -6 °C.

Sunday: Mix of sun and cloud. 0-3 cm of snow expected overnight, and a possible trace through the day. Light variable ridgetop wind, trending to moderate north at higher elevations. Treeline high around -5 °C.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Possible trace of snow expected. Light to moderate west ridgetop wind, trending to strong northwest at higher elevations. Freezing level rising to around 1300 m. Treeline higher around -3 °C.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, numerous natural, rider triggered, and explosive triggered dry loose avalanches up to size 1.5 were reported in the new storm snow.

On Thursday, small, loose dry avalanches were reported in the recent storm snow. Also, south of Crowsnest Pass, one size 2 explosive controlled avalanche was reported, starting as a storm slab, and getting larger as it entrained loose new snow lower on the slope.

Snowpack Summary

20-35 cm of new snow fell with light winds overnight on Thursday and into Friday morning. A melt freeze crust may be present underneath this new snow, on all aspects, and reported as high as 2100 m.  

Snowfall amounts have varied substantially since the start of the week with south of highway 3 receiving 30-50 cm and the north getting 10-20 cm. This fell as rain at lower elevations, so expect moist snow underneath the melt freeze crust. 

The recent storm snow still needs time to bond to a variety of old surfaces such as firm wind-pressed snow, sun crust on solar aspects, and potentially weak, sugary crystals buried in late February.

The middle and lower snowpack are generally well consolidated, with a crust/facet layer from early December found near the ground. It is currently considered dormant but could become active later this season. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
  • Start with simple terrain and gather information before thinking about more committing features.
  • Loose avalanches may start small but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs

Continued loading from new snow has formed storm slabs on all aspects. These have been more reactive where slabs sit on top of crusts or cold sugary crystals.

Continue to make conservative choices and give the storm snow time to settle and stabilize.

The first punch of sun after the storm could make storm slab avalanches more likely, use extra caution on slopes facing the sun. 

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Loose Wet

An icon showing Loose Wet

With clearer skies forecasted across the region for Saturday, watch for the recent, loose snow to become more reactive as the sun warms the surface. 

The recent snow came with very little wind, and the sun is starting to pack a bigger punch at this time of year. Small natural and rider triggered loose snow avalanches are likely.

Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Valid until: Mar 5th, 2022 4:00PM