Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 8th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Loose Wet.
cgarritty,
Avalanche Canada
Monitor the condition of surface snow as you travel. When the upper snowpack is mushy and cohesionless with free water, wet loose avalanches will be possible or even likely in steep terrain.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.
Weather Forecast
Tuesday night: Cloudy with rain, 5-10 mm. Moderate to strong west winds. Freezing level remaining near 2500m.
Wednesday: Cloud clearing over the morning. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +5 with freezing levels reaching 3200 metres.
Thursday: Sunny. Moderate to strong northwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +5 with freezing levels to 3200 metres.
Friday: Sunny. Light northwest winds. Treeline high temperatures around +7 with freezing levels to 3000 metres.
Avalanche Summary
Tuesday's transition from snowfall to rain likely initiated numerous small wet loose releases confined to the depth of new snow. Larger wet loose releases may have occurred in areas that hadn't seen rain over the weekend - mainly higher elevations.
Looking forward, stability of the snowpack will be tied to the presence or absence of surface crust formation. Wet loose avalanches will remain possible in steep terrain where the upper snowpack reaches an isothermal state (wet snow throughout). As surface crusts form and as free water drains from the upper snowpack, this potential will diminish rapidly.
Snowpack Summary
Moderate rain has wet the snow surface on all aspects and elevations. The formation of surface crust may occur with clear overnight periods in open areas. Any crust that does form will deteriorate with daytime heating.
Below the surface, 5-20 cm of previously dry snow above the early February crust is now almost certainly moist or wet and the crust itself is likely breaking down. This leaves us with a variable 10-60 cm of moist to wet snow and crust sitting on the thick late January crust. This crust extends to mountain tops on all aspects.
The mid and lower snow pack is composed of yet more moist to wet snow that is well settled. Shallow snow cover at low elevations leaves many hazards like stumps and creeks at or just below the surface.
Terrain and Travel
- When a thick, melt-freeze surface crust is present, avalanche activity is unlikely.
- The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become.
Problems
Loose Wet
Rain has been saturating the upper snowpack. Where surface crusts fail to form and the upper snowpack remains wet, wet loose avalanches in steep terrain are possible. This potential will fade as free water drains from the upper snowpack and with the formation of surface crust.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 9th, 2022 4:00PM
