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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 18th, 2022–Feb 19th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Avalanche danger will increase this weekend as new snow and wind will form unstable slabs at upper elevations. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

FRIDAY NIGHT: Cloudy skies, no precipitation, moderate to strong wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -5 C.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with flurries starting in the morning and 5-15 cm of snow by the late afternoon, strong wind from the southwest, treeline temperatures around -5 C.

SUNDAY: Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing another 10-25 cm of snow, wind easing off throughout the day with mostly light northeast gusts, treeline temperatures drop to -15 C throughout the day.

MONDAY: Mostly sunny, moderate wind from the northeast, treeline temperatures around -18 C.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity over the past few days has been limited to small (size 1) slab and loose avalanches in steep alpine terrain. With the incoming storm we could expect to see larger wind slabs form at upper elevations. 

Snowpack Summary

New snow will form some isolated wind slabs at upper elevations and bring 5 to 15 cm of low density snow in sheltered terrain. Roughly 5 to 15 cm of snow sits above hard wind-affect snow and melt-freeze crusts in most terrain, except north-facing terrain at treeline where there may still be soft snow. Some small surface hoar may be found above the crust in sheltered terrain. A buried surface hoar layer can be found 15 to 30 cm deep on north-facing slopes around treeline. Although this layer has been reactive in snowpack tests, avalanches have not recently been triggered on this layer. The snowpack below is well consolidated, with a crust/facet layer found near the bottom of the snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.
  • Use ridges or ribs to avoid areas of wind loaded snow.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Fresh wind slabs will likely form along ridgetops by Saturday afternoon, with new snow and strong southwest wind in the forecast.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2