Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Vancouver Island.
AM update: If you see more than 30 cm of new snow, consider avalanche danger to be HIGH.
New snow will slide easily on the slippery crust. Touchy fresh slabs and loose dry avalanches may run surprisingly far and fast.
Confidence
Low - Uncertainty is due to the track & intensity of the incoming weather system. Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.
Weather Forecast
Highest snowfall amounts will be concentrated north of Gold River.
Sunday night: New snow 5-15 cm. Strong southwest wind. Treeline temperatures around -5.
Monday: New snow 10-15 cm. Strong southwest wind. Treeline high temperatures around -4.
Tuesday: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Moderate northwest wind shifting southwest. Treeline high temperatures around +1.
Wednesday: New snow 5-15 cm. Strong northwest wind. Treeline high temperatures around -1.
Avalanche Summary
No recent avalanche activity.
Snowpack Summary
15-30 cm of new low density snow falls on a thick crust at all elevations. Around treeline, the 5-10 cm crust is reportedly supportive to skis but not boots or sleds. Faceting has been observed on its underside.
Recent indications of the region's surviving snowpack suggest alpine depths around 150 cm, depth tapering dramatically with elevation to about 30-60 cm at treeline.
Terrain and Travel
- Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
- Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 30 cm of new snow.
- Keep in mind the crust offers an excellent bed surface for avalanches.
- Be aware of the potential for loose avalanches in steep terrain where snow hasn't formed a slab.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
New snow will slide easily on the slippery crust. Loose dry avalanches will likely run naturally in steep terrain, while cohesive slab formation is most likely in wind affected areas.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Very Likely - Almost Certain
Expected Size: 1 - 2