Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 4th, 2017 4:03PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is low, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Loose Dry and Wind Slabs.

rupert wedgwood, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Summary

Weather Forecast

In the next 48hrs winds will decrease to light at treeline and shift from the north to the W and SW. Highs on thursday of -12 and light ppt producing up to 7cm of snow. Temperatures will remain much the same into Saturday when another cooling trend will set in.

Snowpack Summary

After two significant cold spells and below average snowfall the snowpack is weak, shallow and has several layers of concern. The snowpack base is rapidly turning the depth hoar above which is a significant rain crust now buried up to a meter below the surface. The upper snowpack is stratified with wind slabs the bonding between which is suspect.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been observed or reported in the past 24 hours .

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Problems

Loose Dry

Arctic temperatures faceting the surface snow causing it to lose cohesion and release loose dry avalanches in steep alpine rocky terrain. Particularly concerning for ice-climbers in confined terrain.

Be very cautious with gully features.Use caution above cliffs where small avalanches may have severe consequences.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Cold temperatures and hard slab conditions make triggering less likely. Triggering from shallow spots remains a possibility.

Watch for areas of hard wind slab in steep alpine features.Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 5th, 2017 4:00PM