Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Dec 16 – 17, 2021
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Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low

Highlights

Quality riding still being found in sheltered areas. Ice climbers be wary of overhead exposure; recent dry loose activity observed on the Weeping Wall.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5

    SW winds continue to build slabs treeline and above - isolated pockets possible on S aspects from Monday's N winds. Watch for hollow sounds and cracking. Test smaller slopes before committing to larger features; windslabs could initiate deep layers.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    Numerous dry loose reported via MIN on Weeping Wall Tuesday - some triggering pockets of slab and gaining mass.  Ice climbers be wary of overhead exposure.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–3.5

    Triggering this layer would be a high consequence event - cautious decisions and thorough investigation is necessary. More likely to trigger this layer in transitions from thin snowpack to deeper loaded pockets or terrain features.

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Isolated flurries with trace of new.  Alpine temps high -13 C; low - 17 C.  Winds light from the north.

Friday: Clear - alpine temps high -17 C; low -21 C.  Winds light west.

Saturday:  Flurries with up to 6cm new:  Alpine temps high -11 C; low -19 C.  Winds light SW.

Flurries continue on Sunday with an additional 6cm forecast.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate SW winds persisting adding to windslab alpine and treeline. Potential for some past loading southerly aspects from N winds Monday. Mid snowpack has settled well with a 2cm crust present below the recent snow up to 1950m. Another crust near the base of the snowpack continues to promote basal faceting adding to deep persistent slab concerns.

Avalanche Summary

MIN report from Tues relaying obs of numerous dry loose Weeping Wall - some triggering slab pockets and gaining mass. Explosive work on Monday at Marmot Ski Resort triggered 2 size 2 full depth avalanches on the November 5 basal weakness.

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Confidence

Regions covered