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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 15th, 2021–Dec 16th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Quality riding still being found in sheltered areas. Ice climbers be wary of overhead exposure; recent dry loose activity observed on the Weeping Wall.

Weather Forecast

Thursday: Isolated flurries with trace of new.  Alpine temps high -13 C; low - 17 C.  Winds light from the north.

Friday: Clear - alpine temps high -17 C; low -21 C.  Winds light west.

Saturday:  Flurries with up to 6cm new:  Alpine temps high -11 C; low -19 C.  Winds light SW.

Flurries continue on Sunday with an additional 6cm forecast.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate SW winds persisting adding to windslab alpine and treeline. Potential for some past loading southerly aspects from N winds Monday. Mid snowpack has settled well with a 2cm crust present below the recent snow up to 1950m. Another crust near the base of the snowpack continues to promote basal faceting adding to deep persistent slab concerns.

Avalanche Summary

MIN report from Tues relaying obs of numerous dry loose Weeping Wall - some triggering slab pockets and gaining mass. Explosive work on Monday at Marmot Ski Resort triggered 2 size 2 full depth avalanches on the November 5 basal weakness.

Please share your trip report, Ice and/or Riding conditions on Avalanche Canada's, Mountain Information Network!

Confidence

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.