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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 12th, 2026–Mar 13th, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Rockies, Dogtooth, East Purcell, St. Mary, Bull, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Triggering large storm slabs will be most likely in wind affected terrain.

Persistent slabs remain possible to human trigger at treeline and above.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are confident that there are persistent slabs in the snowpack, but uncertain about how likely they are to trigger.

Avalanche Summary

Several skier triggered size 1 storm slabs were reported on Wednesday.

Avalanche activity is expected to increase on Thursday with the new snow and wind.

Snowpack Summary

25 to 40 cm of recent snow and strong southwest winds have formed storm slabs that will be most reactive in wind-affected terrain.

Below the recent snow is a 1 to 10 cm thick crust. The thickness of the crust depends on elevation.

At upper elevations, where the crust is thinner or not present, it may still be possible to trigger persistent slabs on multiple buried weak layers of surface hoar and/or crusts in the top 120 cm of the snowpack.

In shallow snowpack areas, depth hoar (large facets) can be found near the bottom of the snowpack.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night
Mostly cloudy. 0 to 5 cm of snow. 40 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -11 °C.

Friday
Mix of sun and clouds. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -11 °C.

Saturday
Mix of sun and clouds. 0 to 5 cm of snow. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -11 °C.

Sunday
Sunny. 30 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -13 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazard.
  • Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, or recent avalanches.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind-exposed terrain.
  • Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.