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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 14th, 2020–Dec 15th, 2020
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Lizard-Flathead.

Strong wind and a bit of new snow may stiffen the snow surface and form wind slabs in exposed terrain. The most likely feature to trigger an avalanche would be on a steep slope immediately adjacent to a ridge.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with isolated flurries, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, 20 to 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -9 C.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 5 to 10 cm, 40 to 80 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -8 C.

WEDNESDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm, 20 to 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C.

THURSDAY: Cloudy with light snowfall, accumulation 10 to 20 cm, 40 to 60 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been observed in the region, except for some sluffing in steep terrain. 

Please consider sharing your observations on the Mountain Information Network. Thank you to those that have already submitted this winter.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 30 cm of snow from last week overlies a hard melt-freeze crust formed in early December up to at least 2000 m. To date, this layer has not been an avalanche concern but use caution if you find cohesive snow above the crust, particularly if there are weak, sugary faceted grains immediately above the crust. Strong wind from the southwest is forecast on Tuesday along with a bit of new snow, which is expected to form new wind slabs above this crust. 

Deeper in the snowpack there are a couple of hard melt-freeze crusts that formed in November. The concern would be if there were weak faceted grains around the crust, but there is uncertainty if and where in the region this may be a problem. Without any recent avalanche activity, it appears that this layer is dormant for the time being.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.
  • Avoid areas where the snow feels stiff and/or slabby.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Strong wind from the southwest is forecast for Tuesday along with some new snow. Use caution at and above treeline on lee slopes near ridges, particularly if you notice slab properties in the surface snow.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2