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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 22nd, 2016–Jan 23rd, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Sea To Sky.

A cooler and drier weekend will help reduce danger but give the new snow a day or two to settle before pushing out into bigger terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Cloudy with sunny breaks. The freezing level is around 1200-1500 m and winds are light from the W-SW. Sunday: Cloudy with sunny breaks and a chance of flurries. The freezing level is around 800-1000 m and winds are light from the S-SW. Monday: Cloudy with sunny breaks and a chance of flurries. The freezing level remains near 800-1000 m and winds rise to moderate from the S-SW.

Avalanche Summary

Observations were very limited during the storm on Thursday; however, it's very likely there was a large and widespread avalanche cycle in most areas. Some observers noted numerous natural and skier controlled slabs and loose wet slides up to size 2.

Snowpack Summary

Another 30-50 cm of new snow likely fell above 1600-1800 m on Thursday night with heavy rain saturating the snowpack below treeline. Expect dense new wind and storm slabs, and fresh cornice growth at upper elevations. Heavy loading, and the resulting avalanche cycle, may have flushed-out the mid- and early-January surface hoar/facet layers that were buried 60-100 cm deep. However, don't rule these layers out right away. It may still be possible to trigger shallow slopes that did not release naturally. The mid and lower snowpack is generally strong, with the exception of shallower snowpack areas that may be more faceted.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Heavy snowfall and moderate ridge winds continued on Friday helping form deep slabs at higher elevations, especially in immediate lee and cross-loaded features.
The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

It's possible that heavy snow and rain may have wiped out this problem in most, or even all areas. That being said, keep your guard up until we have more post-storm information.
Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.>Be wary of slopes that did not previously avalanche - even on low angle terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5