Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 10th, 2014–Feb 11th, 2014

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

4: High

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Tuesday

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Light snowfall throughout the day becoming heavy through the evening / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 800mWednesday: Continued heavy snowfall in the early morning becoming light / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 900mThursday: Moderate snowfall / Strong southwest winds / Freezing level at 1100m

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural and human-triggered size 1 storm slabs were observed in alpine terrain on Monday. I would expect more of the same with sizes increasing with forecast weather.

Snowpack Summary

A developing storm slab overlies a medley of old surfaces which include: weak surface facets, surface hoar, thin wind slabs, a scoured crust, or any combination thereof. Strong winds are likely shifting the new snow into stiff wind slabs in exposed terrain. As the new slab develops and gains cohesion, I would expect it to have a poor bond with any of these old surfaces.The mid snowpack is generally strong and well-settled. Basal facets and depth hoar are likely to exist in some areas, but triggering has become unlikely.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

A developing storm slab sits over a variety of potentially weak surfaces. Reactivity is most likely in wind-exposed terrain. With more snow on the way, conservative terrain selection will become critical.

Choose conservative lines and watch for clues of instability.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3