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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2013–Jan 1st, 2014
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Banff Yoho Kootenay.

Happy New Year!  Great skiing can be found in sheltered areas W. of the Divide & ice climbing in unexposed terrain.  The recent snow, ongoing wind, and forecasted snow - we may put us at the tipping point for a widespreaad avalanche cycle. LP

Weather Forecast

Moderate to strong ridge top west winds expected for tomorrow and into Thursday and could trigger further avalanches along and W of the Divide.  A major system expected for Thursday and Friday bringing 20-30 cm with more wind.  If this occurs the hazard will rise to High for both days.

Snowpack Summary

W. of the divide there is 40-70 cm of fresh snow over the past 5 days and 10-20 cm on the East. Continued west winds have added to the slab condition in the alpine and at treeline.  The treeline snowpack depth is roughly 1 metre deep. The midpack is supportive on skis but is consists mostly of weak facets with a persistent weak layer at the ground.

Avalanche Summary

In the last 12-24 hrs there have been several avalanches. A natural size 3 in alpine S. asp terrain near Lake Louise (National Geographics), a size 2 scrubbed over Pilsner Pillar climb near Field, and a healthy sz 2 on Twin Cairns near Sunshine - all slid to ground. Also, 2 size 2 storm slab slides occurred at the TL elevation, Emerald Lake area.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Thursday

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Recent snow & wind loading has resulted in a few slides size 2-3 failing to ground. Avalanche professionals in the Louise area went for a ride today after placing 7 explosives in a feature then ski cutting it & hitting the hidden mine to trigger it.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

New and old wind slabs exist in the region.  Once triggered these slabs are likely to step down the basal weak layer incorporating the entire snowpack in the slide.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Storm Slabs

An issue on the West side of the Divide where 40-70 cm has fallen in the past few days.  Both slab and loose avalanches have been observed today and are expected to continue with forecasted wind.
Avoid open slopes with any steepness over 30 degrees.Choose well supported terrain without convexities.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2