Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 3rd, 2023 4:00PM

The alpine rating is high, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

shorton, Avalanche Canada

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Heavy snowfall and wind have created dangerous avalanche conditions. Stick to low angle terrain and avoid wind-loaded slopes.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Preliminary reports from Friday afternoon suggest storm snow was beginning to become reactive to ski cutting, producing small storm slab avalanches. A natural avalanche cycle will likely occur during the peak of the storm on Friday night, then on Saturday we expect human-triggered avalanches to be likely on steep slopes and natural avalanches to continue on wind-loaded slopes.

Snowpack Summary

New snow is rapidly accumulating above 1000 m with extreme southerly wind impacting open terrain. This snow is falling above a recently buried melt-freeze crust, and observations from the past few days suggest the snow may bond poorly to this crust. The crust is up to 10 cm thick at lower elevations and tapers down to 1 cm thick on shaded or high elevation terrain. Below this crust, the snowpack is generally strong and bonded.

Weather Summary

Friday night

Stormy weather peaks in intensity in the early evening, then steady flurries continue through the night bringing a total of 20 to 30 cm of snow by the morning, 50 to 70 km/h south wind, freezing level around 1000 m with treeline temperatures around -2 ËšC.

Saturday

Cloudy with periods of snow bringing 10 to 15 cm of snow, 60 to 80 km/h south to southeast wind, freezing level between 1000 and 1200 m, with treeline temperatures around -2 ËšC.

Sunday

Another front hits the island on Saturday night and eases off Sunday morning with sunny periods in the afternoon, a total of 20 to 50 cm of snow expected over the period, 60 to 80 km/h south wind in the morning then shifting to 50 km/h gusty northwest wind in the afternoon, freezing level remains around 1000 m throughout the period, treeline temperature drop from -2 to -6 ËšC.

Monday

Mostly cloudy with scattered flurries bringing 5 to 10 cm of snow, 40 to 60 km/h southwest wind, freezing level climbs to 1400 m, treeline temperatures reach 0 ËšC.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Choose low-angled, sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.
Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 30 cm of new snow.
Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.

Problems

Storm Slabs

40 to 70 cm of fresh snow will form touchy storm slabs, especially on wind-loaded slopes. The new snow could have a poor bond to the recently buried crust, making human-triggered avalanches very likely on steep slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Very Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 2.5

Valid until: Feb 4th, 2023 4:00PM