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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 18th, 2018–Dec 19th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Sea To Sky.

It is starting to sound like a broken record, but the storms keep coming. Wednesday will be brief period where you may be able to have a look around, but the next round of snow and wind will start up on Thursday, prompting the danger to increase.

Confidence

High - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY NIGHT: Flurries, accumulation 5-10cm. Alpine temperature -5. Moderate to strong southwest wind. Freezing level 1200m. WEDNESDAY: Scattered flurries, accumulation 5 cm. Alpine temperature -4. Light west wind. Freezing level 1300m. THURSDAY: Snow, accumulation 25-35cm. Alpine temperature -1. Moderate to strong southwest wind. Freezing level 1500 m. FRIDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks. Alpine temperature -8. Light west wind.  Freezing level at the valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

Recent reports indicate numerous explosives controlled storm slab avalanches size1.5-2 at tree line and in the alpine on Monday. A few of these have have been suspected to be running on a layer of facets buried up to metre deep.

Snowpack Summary

Over 2 m of snow has accumulated over the past 10 days. We are in the midst of another series of storms impacting the region, which will bring another round of snow and strong to extreme southerly winds.A weak layer of facets and surface hoar lies below all the recent storm snow. Initially, avalanches were reported to be running on this layer. However, recent avalanche activity is running in the storm snow above this layer. Still, the presence of this layer shouldn't be completely discarded, since it could potentially increase expected avalanche size with a large trigger like a cornice collapse.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The forecast weather will drive another round of storm- and wind-slabs in alpine and treeline areas. Upper parts of below treeline could also experience storm slab issues as the snowpack continues to build in this elevation band.
Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5