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Avalanche Forecast

Feb 26th, 2017–Feb 27th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Jasper.

Cautious decisions are key particularly on large terrain features or those around terrain traps. Forecasters do not have much confidence in the snowpack as whumphing continues. Evaluate snow and terrain carefully. 

Weather Forecast

Expect -12 to -18 degrees Celsius now into Tuesday with very light flurries and light winds. Some new snow and windy conditions may occur Tuesday night through Wednesday. 

Snowpack Summary

A persistent slab at TL and ALP is buried by 5-10cm of new snow from recent flurries. A rain crust is buried by this recent snow below 1900m. A somewhat dense upper snowpack overlies a weak faceted base making for unpredictably dangerous avalanche conditions. A surface hoar layer may be 40cm deep yet remains unconfirmed and dormant. 

Avalanche Summary

No patrol on Sunday and nothing new noted on Saturday. Friday's patrol observed 2 avalanches remotely triggered by skiers size 1.5-2 in Columbia Icefield area at 2000m treeline elevation. Two size 2-2.5 noted in the alpine south of Parkers ridge. One was a cross-loaded NW alpine feature, the other was triggered by cornice failure.

Confidence

The weather pattern is stable

Avalanche Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Whumphing is occurring in un-skied terrain. It seems to be improving but suspect pockets of weakness just waiting for the trigger. Cold temperatures continue to promote facetting. 
Watch for shooting cracks or stiffer feeling snow. Avoid areas that appear wind loaded.Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

Persistent slabs are buried under 5-10cm of new snow. It potentially overlies a buried surface hoar from Feb 10 but difficult to locate. Be vigilant particularly in sheltered spots where buried surface hoar may be lurking.
Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3