Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 25th, 2015 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Loose Wet, Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

deryl kelly, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Spring is in the air! Except its January! Treat it as spring... watch the temps, get to it early and get out early. A cooling trend is expected later in the week.

Summary

Weather Forecast

If it feels like spring, treat it like spring! Forecast is on a slow cooling trend. For Monday, expect more unseasonably warm temps and finally, some cooling further into the week.

Snowpack Summary

Below 2500ms have seen an infusion of rain and/or wet snow. Below treeline, especially in shallow areas, isothermic conditions are breaking down support in the snowpack. With a such a highly variable snowpack in the region, expect these conditions to overload lingering instabilities like the Dec 20 interface, down 15 to 40cm.

Avalanche Summary

Avi control in the Icefields produced numerous size 1's up to a size 2.5 slabs with impressive propagation over 200ms on a NE aspect at TL. Wet avalanches BTL are entraining the storm snow, building mass and moving fast from the rocks. Ice climbs are wet and becoming detached from the rock. Of note, the Pencil on Polar Circus broke off today.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Monday

Problems

Loose Wet

Steep and shallow areas below TL are saturated and have lost much of their support underfoot. Avoid consequential areas where heavy wet slides may push you over or into terrain traps. Low elevation ice climbs will be prone to wet sluffs.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Avoid ice climbs that are in terrain traps below large start zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2

Storm Slabs

Strong SW winds continue to scour open slopes and redistribute that snow into wind slabs on lee aspects and cross loaded features. This extra load combined with a skier are at a critical mass and will likely initiate an avalanche

Be careful with wind loaded pockets while approaching and climbing ice routes.If you are increasing your exposure to avalanche terrain, do it gradually as you gather information.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The weak layer of surface hoar and facets from December can still be found and may become susceptible to triggering with new snow load. A skier accidental size 2.5 occurred Saturday from low angle terrain (27 degrees) on a NE aspect at treeline.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 26th, 2015 4:00PM