Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 26th, 2016 8:10AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada bcorrigan, Avalanche Canada

Wind slabs over a mix of touchy weak layers from earlier in the year. Be extremely cautious around tree line and above.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with snow flurries for Wednesday and 5 to 10cm of snow forecast for higher elevations on Thursday. A brief break in the weather Thursday night, then another5 to 10cm on Friday, tapering off for the weekend. Freezing levels are forecast to rise above 1500 metres, but there is some disagreement among the weather models of just how high they will go. Moderate to strong SW winds are forecast for ridge tops and above.

Avalanche Summary

Reports of natural activity have subsided on the east slope, but explosive testing yesterday produced a size 3 avalanche that ran on facets sitting on a melt-freeze crust that formed in early December. West of the divide the natural cycle has diminished as well, but closer to the Lizard range there have been of natural and skier triggered avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Recent storms with strong southwest winds have redistributed the snow at tree line and above. Wind slabs have formed on lee slopes, and a crust that formed in early December has reappeared with recent wind loading east of Crowsnest Pass. In general the new snow overlies scoured surfaces and hard stubborn wind slabs from last week. The mid and lower snowpack are getting stronger and settling well in these areas. In some locations  west of the divide there is a rain crust up to 2000 metres with 20 to 30 cm of storm snow on it. Around 50cm below the surface is a combination of surface hoar, facets and a hard crust that formed on steep solar aspects. Additional snow load will add to the size and reactivity of this developing slab. About 60 to 80cm below the surface there is surface hoar layer which formed in early December. All areas have received extensive wind activity around tree line and above.

Problems

Wind Slabs

An icon showing Wind Slabs
It's a real mixed bag in the upper snowpack, topped off with touchy, recently formed wind slabs. Triggering the surface wind slab could affect multiple buried weak layers.
Avoid slopes with glide cracks.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
This slab might be triggered by a small slide in the right location.
Use extra caution on open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 27th, 2016 2:00PM