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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 24th, 2024–Dec 25th, 2024
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: East Island, North Island, South Island, Vancouver Island.

Very dangerous avalanche conditions will be developing on Wednesday. Make a plan to back off from avalanche terrain entirely, especially in the afternoon.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported since a widespread natural cycle last week. A return to dangerous avalanche conditions is expected for Wednesday.

Please consider sharing your observations through the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

By end of day Wednesday, 30 - 80 cm of new snow should accumulate across the Island, with the greatest accumulations on the west coast. A transition to rain in the evening should diminish these totals at most elevations.

Alpine elevations received approximately 20 - 30 cm of snow and intermittent rain since Dec 22. Lesser amounts or a combination of rain-soaked snow or crust can be found at lower elevations. Where recent snow exists, it covers a mid and lower snowpack that are thoroughly settled and bonded as a result of recent heavy rain.

Snowpack depths at treeline vary from about 100 -150 cm on the north and south island, closer to 200 to 250 cm on the central island.

Weather Summary

Tuesday night

Cloudy with flurries bringning 5 to 15 cm of new snow. 40 to 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 1100 m.

Wednesday

Cloudy with heavy snowfall bringing 30 - 80 cm of new snow, continuing and changing to rain in the evening, with the greatest values on the west island. 70 to 90 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 1100 m, rising in the evening.

Thursday

Cloudy with wet flurries bringing a trace to 10 cm of new snow after 20 - 70 cm overnight, with the greatest values on the west of the island. 30 to 50 km/h variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1300 m.

Friday

Cloudy with wet flurries bringing a trace to 10 cm of new snow with the greatest values on the west of the island. 30 to 40 km/h southeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1300 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Be aware of the potential for human triggerable storm slabs at lower elevations, even on small features.
  • Don't let storm day fever lure you into consequential terrain.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs are expected to form rapidly during Wednesday's stormy weather. A warming trend in the afternoon will promote natural avalanche activity.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Very Likely - Certain

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5