Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Dec 22nd, 2019 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.
kdevine,
Avalanche Canada
Recent fresh snow has added a significant load to a buried weak layer. Continue to choose conservative terrain as human triggered avalanches remain likely.
Summary
Confidence
Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.
Weather Forecast
SUNDAY NIGHT - Cloudy with clear periods / light northeast wind / alpine low temperature near -8
MONDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -7
TUESDAY - Mainly cloudy / southeast wind, 20-40 km/h / alpine high temperature near -10
WEDNESDAY - Cloudy with sunny periods / light southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -11
Avalanche Summary
There is a notable weak layer of surface hoar that is down 40-100 cm and human triggering remains likely. Treat this layer with caution and choose conservative terrain.
On Saturday, there were a few reports of natural and human triggered avalanches up to size 2. Check out this MIN report detailing the touchy conditions found in the Allan Creek area on Saturday.
On Friday, there were a few reports of natural and human triggered avalanches. Check out this great MIN report from Allan Creek that outlines reactive storm slab conditions. Here is another great MIN report about similar conditions further north in the region.
Snowpack Summary
The Cariboos have seen up to 70 cm of new snow over the past week, with most of it falling between Thursday afternoon and Saturday morning.
40-100 cm of snow is now sitting on a widespread layer of feathery surface hoar crystals. This layer has been responsible for several recent human triggered avalanches in the region. There is some uncertainty as to whether or not this layer will gain strength in the near future and so it should be treated with caution.
A weak layer formed in late November is now buried around 1 m or more below the surface. This is the layer of concern relating to the persistent slab avalanche problem. The weak layer may present as surface hoar, a crust, facets or a combination, depending on elevation and aspect.
Terrain and Travel
- Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
- Keep in mind that human triggering potential persists as natural avalanching tapers off.
- Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
- Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm slabs sit on a weak layer of surface hoar that is down 40-100 cm. Human triggering of this layer remains likely.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Persistent Slabs
A couple of weak layers formed in late November and early December are now sitting about 1 m below the surface. Likely trigger points are shallow, rocky areas, especially at higher elevations.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Dec 23rd, 2019 5:00PM
