Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Lizard-Flathead.
With no or minimal overnight freezing, warm temperatures, sunshine and light rain will continue to destabilize the snowpack on all aspects and all elevations. Thoughtful terrain choices and conservative decision-making are essential for safe travel in the backcountry.
Confidence
Moderate - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast Uncertainty is due to the fact that cornice falls are particularly difficult to forecast.
Weather Forecast
An upper ridge builds in from the west and moves across the province on Monday. This will be associated with drying and clearing conditions before the next storm system moving in for Wednesday.Â
SUNDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with clear period. No precipitation. 15-20 km/h southwesterly winds. Low alpine temperature +5 C with freezing level around 2700 m.
MONDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with isolated showers. 1-3 mm. 25-40 km/h southwesterly winds. High alpine temperature +3 C with freezing level around 2500 m.Â
TUESDAY: Sunny with cloudy periods. No precipitation. 15-30 km/h northeasterly winds. High alpine temperature 0 C with freezing level around 1800 m.Â
WEDNESDAY: A mix of sun and cloud with increasing cloudiness in the afternoon. No precipitation. 20-30 km/h southwesterly winds. High alpine temperature 0 C with freezing level around 1800 m.
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday, a few natural and triggered small loose wet avalanches were observed on steep south facing slopes.
Remember that a lack of reported avalanches does not necessarily mean that there is a lack of avalanche activity. If you are out in the backcountry, and have photos, conditions updates, or even just good vibes to share, consider making a post on the Mountain Information Network.Â
Snowpack Summary
The upper snowpack is going through a diurnal melt freeze cycle with minimal overnight refreezing. Refrozen crust on all aspects up to 2000 m and on solar aspects in the alpine. Surfaces are softening in the afternoon at all elevations, and on steep, sunny slopes. Recent warm temperatures, sun, and rain have made the top 10-30 cm of the snowpack moist. At very low elevations, the snowpack may be wet and isothermal, depending on overnight freezing levels.Â
The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well bonded.
Terrain and Travel
- Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, it is raining, or solar radiation is strong.
- Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Wtih no overnight freezing forecasted, the surface snow will not refreeze except maybe at very high elevations. The more the snow feels like a slurpy, the more likely loose wet avalanches will become. Especially avoid steep slopes when they are baking in the sun.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2
Cornices
Cornices are large at this time of the year and warm temperatures may cause them to become weak. Cornice failures are dangerous on their own, but also have the potential to trigger larger avalanches on the slopes below.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 2 - 3