Danger ratings are based on 20-25cm snow accumulation and very strong winds on Tuesday. It could be slightly lower if the system is a little less intense than forecast.
Summary
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather is uncertain
Weather Forecast
A frontal system will spread light to locally moderate snowfall tonight and through Tuesday. Some areas could see up to 20cm. Winds are expected to be strong from the southwest. Wednesday should be another unsettled convective day with generally 3-5cm and lighter winds. Another system should spread light or moderate snowfall on Thursday, but the track of this system is still a little uncertain. The daytime freezing level should hover around 1000m each day.
Avalanche Summary
One recent Size 3 avalanche was observed in the north end of the region last weekend. This avalanche was suspected to have released on the early February surface hoar layer. There was also a report of a Size 2 avalanche remotely triggered by a snowcat in rocky and variable terrain on a north aspect. This avalanche occurred just outside the region to the north. Otherwise avalanche activity has been limited to Size 1 skier triggered wind slabs or loose snow sluffs.
Snowpack Summary
An additional 20cm of new snow brings the total storm snow amount to around 100cm in most areas. Several resistant shears have been noted in the storm snow. A sun crust on southern aspects and a spotty 2-6mm surface hoar on north and east aspects is down around 60-90cm. Below that, the more significant early February surface hoar is down 100-160cm. Snowpack tests show moderate to hard forces generating sudden planar shears on this layer. A melt-freeze crust, down 20-30cm, below 1800m provides some bridging to the layers below. Below the early February surface hoar layer, the snowpack is strong in most places. Cornices are very large and would act as a significant trigger for all the layers mentioned above if they drop.
pmarshall,
Avalanche Canada
