Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 15th, 2016 8:19AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs.

Avalanche Canada ccampbell, Avalanche Canada

Tricky conditions are expected and conservative route selection is critical

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with light snow and strong southwesterly winds in the afternoon. Total accumulation of up to 5 cm and freezing levels remaining in valley bottoms. Sunday: Mainly cloudy with 5-10cm of snow, strong southwesterly winds and freezing levels in valley bottoms. Monday: a mix of sun and cloud with lingering light flurries. warming temperatures but freezing levels expected to stay below 1500m, and light to moderate southwesterly winds.

Avalanche Summary

Reports from Thursday include numerous explosive and skier controlled storm slab avalanches up to Size 2, with up to 60cm thick slabs but generally low density. Sun-exposure in some areas also initiated a loose dry natural avalanche cycle with surface sluffs up to Size 2 on steep south facing slopes.

Snowpack Summary

Weaknesses exist within the 30-40cm of recent storm snow (or possibly up to 50cm in some areas), which is also bonding poorly to buried surface hoar sitting on sun crust on south aspects or facets in shaded areas. Wind and warm temperatures have promoted slab development in many areas, however in some sheltered areas there may still be insufficient storm snow settlement and cohesion for storm slab conditions. About 70-90 cm below the surface, you might find a rain crust from mid-December which co-exists with facets in some areas. Recent snowpack tests suggest that it could still be capable of producing human triggered avalanches. The snowpack below this layer is generally strong and well-settled.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
Especially touchy on wind-loaded slopes where slabs are more cohesive, south aspects where buried surface hoar sits on a sun crust, and at lower elevations where warming has promoted slab development and surface hoar is more pronounced.
Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved. Caution in cutblocks.>Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Jan 16th, 2016 2:00PM