Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Saturday: Mainly cloudy with rain showers or scattered flurries bringing 5-10 cm depending on drainage. Mostly light westerly winds with strong gusts associated with snow flurry activity. Freezing levels as high as 2000 m. Sunday: Snow with 20 cm of accumulation depending on drainage. Generally moderate but gusty westerly winds. Freezing levels dropping slightly to 1800 m. Monday: Mostly cloudy with snow flurries bringing another 5-10 cm. Generally light westerly winds gusting with flurry activity, and freezing levels down to 1600 m.

Reports from Thursday include a remotely triggered deep persistent slab avalanche with a heavy trigger in a low angle meadow. The slab released on the facet/crust weakness down 80-100 cm on a NW aspect at 2100 m.

Recent storm and wind slabs are bonding poorly to buried surface hoar and facets particularly on sheltered slopes such as cut blocks, and crust on previously sun-exposed slopes. Warm temperatures and sun-exposure has been making these and deeper persistent slabs very sensitive to triggers at treeline elevations and below, and resulting in surface melt-freeze cycles as high as alpine elevations. The deeper facet/crust persistent weakness buried at the beginning of February, now down 100-150 cm, has been described by avalanche professionals as "very weird". Although widespread, it has been highly variable in terms of reactivity. Convective flurry activity has already accumulated 10-15cm of fresh snow in some drainages, which has likely blown into touchy wind slabs on leeward slopes.