Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

There is some upslope snowfall enhancement possible for the South Rockies Thursday into Thursday night.

Wednesday Night: Light flurries 5 cm possible. Light to moderate southwest wind. Freezing levels should fall to valley bottom with treeline lows around -2.

Thursday: Flurries, another 5-15 cm, light to moderate southwest wind, treeline high near zero.

Thursday night into Friday: Flurries overnight with 5-15 cm possible, clearing during the day with light to moderate variable wind, dropping freezing levels and treeline high of -3.

Saturday: Mostly sunny, light southeast winds, treeline highs of -3.

On Wednesday there was more evidence of a large avalanche cycle from size 2-3 in the region. The field team also experienced whumpfing at treeline elevations in the Elkford area.

A large (size 2.5) avalanche was remotely triggered from a ridge in a neighboring forecast region as well.  

Snowfall amounts have varied substantially since the start of the week with south of highway 3 receiving 30-50 cm and the north getting 10-20 cm. This fell as rain at lower elevations. An upslope storm on Thurday day and into the evening could add to these amounts. Wind loading from moderate to strong southwest wind continues. New snow will need time to bond to a variety of old surfaces such as firm wind-pressed snow, sun crust on solar aspects, and potentially weak cold sugary crystals.

The middle and lower snowpack are generally well consolidated, with a crust/facet layer from early December found near the bottom of the snowpack. It is currently considered dormant but could become active later this season. 

• Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
• Watch for signs of instability like whumpfing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks or recent avalanches.
• Start with simple terrain and gather information before thinking about more committing features.
• Avoid freshly wind loaded features, especially near ridge crests, roll-overs and in steep terrain.