Heavy snow and strong northwest winds are forecast for the Aspiring region over Monday and Tuesday.
There will be a Considerable risk of avalanches during this time.
Travel on or under avalanche terrain should be avoided over the next few days
Wind slab is likely to form on east and south aspects above around 1600m over the next few days.
By Monday afternoon, these could increase in size and run naturally.
The bond between the new snow and the existing weak faceted surface snow will be suspect, and the likelihood of triggering avalanches will increase.
Best avoid avalanche terrain, stick to your local field, and let the storm pass.
There have been very few observations in the Aspiring region so far this winter.
A look around the central part of the region on Wednesday showed only a few avalanches had run naturally out of the last storm. The image shows old Debris on the Hesse glacier Size 2.5 from 0704 Storm
If you see any recent avalanche occurrences or have any relevant snowpack information or photos, you can share them via the Public Observations link on the NZAA home page.
On the 8th July, 5- 10 cm of new snow fell to around 900m. Gale south easterly winds during this storm stripped some exposed areas and loaded ridgetops and other terrain features. On the 5th, a notable 1-2cm rime crust formed above 1650m to the east of the region around Wanaka and may be present in some areas of the Aspiring region too. Below this, 30- 50 cm of settled snow from the 3rd of July overlies a solid ice layer. With short days and cold, clear nights, the current shallow 50- 70 cm snowpack will be faceting/ loosing strength and should be monitored carefully once buried under the forecast snow.
With limited info, this structure may vary across the region.
Mon13 Jul
Showers, turning to rain in the morning and afternoon, sometimes heavy. Snow to 1200 metres until evening. Possible thunderstorms from afternoon.
Wind at 1000 metres Northerly 40 km/h, rising to gale 80 km/h in the morning, before easing to westerly 40 km/h in the evening.
Wind at 2000 metres Northerly gale 70 km/h rising to severe gale 100 km/h in the morning, easing to westerly 50 km/h in the evening.
Wind at 3000 metres Northwesterly gale 70 km/h, rising to severe gale 105 km/h in the morning, easing to westerly gale 70 km/h in the evening.
Freezing level 1400 metres, lifting to 1800 metres in the morning.
Issued: 1:59pm Sun 12 Jul
The incoming snowfall should reduce any sliding danger over the coming days.
Moderate
New Zealand Avalanche Advisory (NZ Mountain Safety Council)
