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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 17th, 2013–Dec 18th, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Cariboos.

Forecasters are operating with limited field data this early in the season. If you have been in the backcountry and have information, we'd love to hear from you. Contact us at:[email protected]

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

Wednesday: As the Pacific front moves out of the area, cold arctic air will move in from the north. Freezing levels drop to valley bottom.Thursday: Continued cold arctic air in the region until the next the next storm approaches and the arctic air retreats. No precipitation forecastFriday:  The cold temperature will remain until the next Pacific system pushes it out.  Light precipitation forecast.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches in the region have been reported. This is more likely because of lack of observations rather than actual conditions. More westerly regions have reported a dramatic rise in avalanche activity.

Snowpack Summary

Snowpack levels vary widely with reports of up to 180cm at tree line in some parts of the region. Moderate to heavy snow fall will continue to add load to buried weak layers. The upper snowpack contains wind slabs, surface hoar, and facets. Rising temperatures forecast over the next few days will consolidate the storm slab above these weak layers. It's difficult to determine when the slab will become reactive to light triggers like skiers and sledders. These weak layers are expected to be persistent. In many areas the upper slab is not yet stiff enough for slab avalanches. When temperatures rise, and with additional snow, expect these layers to become more active.Deeper, in the mid-pack, a couple of persistent weak layers (surface hoar and facets) can be found that formed in mid and late November. Near the base of the snowpack, an early season rain crust exists. The continuous loading of new snow and the rising temperatures may be enough to wake up these previously dormant layers.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Fresh snow transported by high winds is continually adding load to the upper snow pack.  It may be possible for light triggers such as a skier or a snowmobile to initiate an avalanche. Pay particular attention in areas recently wind loaded.
Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.>Use conservative route selection, stick to moderate angled terrain with low consequence.>Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Persistent Slabs

Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 3 - 5