Avalanche Forecast

THURSDAY: Freezing Level: 3200m, sunny in the morning with increasing high cloud and possible convective flurries in the afternoon, light to moderate southerly ridgetop winds. FRIDAY: Freezing Level: 3200m, mix of sun and cloud, light southerly ridgetop winds. SATURDAY: Freezing Level: 2500m, cloudy with possible flurries, light southerly ridgetop winds.

Several size 2 loose wet avalanches were reported on solar aspects in the alpine on Tuesday. Most commercial operations have closed for the season, and data is becoming sparse. However, with the extremely high freezing levels, sunny skies, and lack of overnight surface freezing, I would expect cornice failures and sporadic large wet slab avalanches.

Monitoring the overnight freeze of the snow surface is very important during the spring. If the snow surface does not freeze overnight or if the crust is only a few cm thick, the effect of daytime heating and solar radiation will weaken the snowpack much more quickly than it would if there is a well frozen thick crust. This is because the crust must first melt before the sun can weaken the snowpack. Deeply buried weak layers in the mid snowpack and near the ground still have the potential to wake up and become active with a rapid warm up. While unlikely, releases on these deeply buried weak layers would result in very large avalanches. Glide cracks are widespread, active, and best avoided. Cornices are large, fragile, and could trigger deep slab avalanches that run to valley bottoms. The snowpack in many areas has become isothermal, meaning the snowpack is 0 degrees Celsius throughout. An isothermal snowpack is more prone to full depth wet slab avalanches during the heat of the day.