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Avalanche Forecast

Dec 15th, 2012–Dec 16th, 2012
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Cariboos.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: westerly flow with weak systems or convective snow showers. Continued cool temperatures. Yeah!Sunday: Light to moderate SW wind. Snowfall amounts should be light and convective (showery), primarily on the west side of the ranges. Temperatures around -10C at treeline and above.Monday: Moderate SW wind, 5 to 10 cm of snow, and a few degrees cooler than Sunday. A storm is forecast to track to the south of the region but should it shift northward, more snow would be expected.Tuesday: Light W wind, trace of new snow possible, continued minus mid-teen temperatures up high.

Avalanche Summary

Mostly small loose snow avalanches from steep terrain were reported for this region. One cornice triggered size 2.5 slab avalanche was reported in the north (ALP, N aspect, 100 cm deep, 45 degree slope). Due to our limited observations for this region at this time, your avalanche observations are welcome at forecaster@avalanche.ca

Snowpack Summary

20 to 50 cm HST low density with some wind affect ALP & TL. WSL immediate lee. Buried hard SL from Dec 4 in ALP.Windslab development should increase today (Saturday) in the alpine and treeline elevations with moderate SW winds. These slabs are most likely immediately behind ridge crests and downslope ribs. There's ample recent snow available to fuel slab development if the wind picks up as forecast. There still may be deeper hidden windslabs lingering in the Alpine, but these would probably require a larger trigger. Overall, the top and mid-snowpack is reported to be settling well. The deep persistent instabilities (surface hoar and early November crust) located in the middle and near the bottom of the snowpack may still be a concern in this region. It is important to know that we have very limited observations for this region. Digging down and making your own observations, especially in thinner snowpack areas, remains a good idea to assist safe slope selection. You're looking for weak layers that pop or drop. Any observations from the field are welcome at forecaster@avalanche.ca.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Loose snow and soft slabs could be a concern on steeper terrain, wind slabs are a concern behind ridges & ribs
Assess start zones carefully and use safe travel techniques.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 5