Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 3rd, 2019 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs, Deep Persistent Slabs and Loose Dry.

jesse milner, Parks Canada

Jasper.

Extreme cold conditions and road closures make decisions easy for back country activities. Highway 93N remains closed (estimated opening February 4th)

Summary

Weather Forecast

The deep freeze continues, but with clear skies!Monday: Sunny with cloudy periods with no precipitation and a high of -19 C with light ridge winds.Tuesday: Sunny with cloudy periods with no precipitation and a low of -22 and High of -14 C with light winds from the North. A detailed mountain weather forecast is available from Avalanche Canada.

Snowpack Summary

50cm new snow in the past 48 hours and recent strong winds. This overlies a variety of surfaces from previous wind effect, sun crust and the Jan 18 surface hoar (most prominent in sheltered locations TL and below). We suspect the recent winds and new snow will be overloading the well settled mid pack and producing large scale avalanches

Avalanche Summary

Limited observations in the forecast region due to highway conditions, poor vis and temperatures too cold to perform helicopter bombing. Forecaster's remote triggered multiple size 1.5 to 2 and had explosive results to size 2 during highway avalanche control yesterday.Help forecast - share observations HERE, on the Mountain Information Network!

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Up to 50cm of recent snow followed by strong winds have redistributed the snow into thick slabs well into the terrain.

Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Deep Persistent Slabs

New snow with strong winds may overload the deep persistent weakness.

Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1.5 - 4

Loose Dry

New low density snow sluffing out of very steep rocky terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 1.5

Valid until: Feb 4th, 2019 4:00PM